Buying a Home in a Shrinking Economy: What You Need to Know

A shrinking economy. Rising mortgage rates. Flatlining prices.

If you’ve been thinking about buying a home in 2025, it’s no wonder you’re feeling hesitant. For many buyers, the instinct right now is to wait it out. To see what happens before making a big move.

And the headlines don’t help:

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis just reported a 0.3% drop in GDP in Q1 2025, following a strong 2.4% gain at the end of 2024.  It’s the kind of data point that makes people pause.

But smart buyers aren’t freezing. They’re asking the right questions. They’re gathering the data. And they’re making a plan.

A Simple 3-Step Plan for Buyers in 2025

If you’re on the fence about buying, here’s a clear, no-pressure way to think about your next step.

Step 1: Get Clear on What’s Actually Worrying You

A lot of buyers right now are saying the same thing:

“I think I just want to wait and see what happens with the economy. I don’t want to make a mistake.”

That makes total sense. Buying a home is a major decision, and when the economy feels uncertain, it’s natural to question what comes next.

But instead of freezing, try asking yourself: What specifically is making me nervous?

Is it interest rates? Prices? Job security? Timing?

Once you pinpoint the real concern, it becomes easier to talk through your options and make decisions based on facts, not fear.

Step 2: Understand What the Market Is Actually Doing

Right now, many buyers assume that prices will crash or rates will suddenly drop. But that’s not what the data is showing.

According to the April 2025 housing report from Realtor.com, we’re seeing some shifts that benefit buyers:

• Inventory is up 30.6% year-over-year, giving you more choices and less competition.

• 18% of listings had price reductions in April, the highest share for any April since at least 2016. That’s a sign sellers are adjusting to buyer expectations.

• Homes are sitting a little longer, with a median of 50 days on the market, four more than a year ago. This means you have more time to make decisions.

• The national median list price is holding steady at $431,250, and price per square foot is up just 1.1%. Values are stable, but growth is slowing.

In other words, this isn’t a repeat of 2008. In fact, in four of the last six recessions, home prices went up. And that creates a real opening for buyers who are paying attention, asking the right questions, and prepared to move strategically.

Now, let’s zoom in. 

In Collin County, we currently have 2,240 homes for sale. That’s up from 1,571 last year.
The average days on market is 47, and 27.4% of homes have seen recent price reductions.

These local trends matter just as much, if not more, than what’s happening nationally. Because even in an uncertain economy, real estate is always local.

Step 3: Build a Plan

No matter what your timeline is, planning is key.

If you are looking to buy within the next 18 months, you have two clear options:

• Option 1: Create a 6–12 month plan where you rent, save, and watch the market closely.

• Option 2: Explore what’s available right now and see if there’s an opportunity to buy with less competition while others are still hesitating.

Neither option is wrong. 

I’ll leave you with this—it can be easy to let uncertainty take over when things feel unpredictable. But often, the smartest moves are made when we stay grounded in facts, focused on our goals, and open to possibility.